ISEN 627
Decision Analysis I (2007 Fall)


Instructor : J. Eric Bickel, Ph.D.
                     Assistant Professor
                     Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering
                     Office : 236B Zachry
                     Phone: 979-845-4347
                     Email: ebickel@tamu.edu
                     Office hours: Tuesday and Thursday 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM or by appointment
Teaching Assistant : Seong-Dae Kim (sdkim@tamu.edu)

Course Schedule and Classroom :
Class will meet every Tuesday and Thursday 9:35 - 10:50 AM, except for University Holidays.  We will conform to the University Academic Calendar (http://www.tamu.edu/admissions/records/academic_calendar.html).
 

Handouts

HO01 Syllabus

H002 Probabilistic Grading Information
HO03 HW #1
HO04 Quiz #1

HO05 HW #2
HO06 Quiz #2

HO07 HW#1/Quiz#1 Solns
HO08 HW #3
HO09 Quiz #3

HO10 HW#2/Quiz#2 Solns
HO11 HW #4
HO12 Quiz #4

HO13 DA Concept Map
HO14 HW#3/Quiz#3 Solns
HO15 HW#5
HO16 Quiz#5
HO17 HW#4/Quiz#4 Solns
HO18 HW#6
HO19 Quiz#6

HO20 HW#5/Quiz#5 Solns
HO21 HW#7
HO22 Quiz#7
HO23 HW#6/Quiz#6 Solns
HO24 Midterm Instructions
HO25 Midterm Solutions
HO26 Quiz#8
HO27 HW#8
H028 HW#7/Quiz#7 Solns
HO28 Quiz#9
HO30 HW#8
HO31 HW#8/Quiz#8 Solns
HO32 HW10
HO33 Quiz10
HO34 HW#9/Quiz#9 Solns
HO35 Quiz11
HO36 HW11
HO37 HW10/Quiz 10 Solns
HO38 HW12
HO39 Quiz 12
HO40 HW 11/Quiz 11 Solns
HO41 Final Exam Example
HO42 HW 12/Quiz 12 Solns
Lectures

Lecture Notes
Aug 30
Sep 04
Sep 06 (None)
Sep 11

Sep 13
Sep 18 (None)
Sep 20
Sep 25
Sep 27
Oct 2
Oct 4
Oct 9
Oct 11
Oct 16
Nov 08
Nov 20
Dec 04

Slides

1 Welcome
2 Actional Thought / PIBP and PISP
3 Distinctions
4 Possibilities Probabilities

5 Bayes
6 Relevance Diagrams
7 The Rules
8 Party Prob
9 Party Prob $
10 Risk Attitude
11 Advanced Risk Attitude
12 Back to Bayesics
13 Combining Experts
14 Sensitivity Analysis
15 Information Gathering
16 Decision Diagrams
17 Advanced Information Gathering
18 Probability Assessment
19 Heuristics
Marc's Assessment
20 Probability Assessment II
21 Entropy
22 Dominance
23 Options
24 Value of Control
25 Life and Death
 

Spreadsheets

Probabilistic Grading Formula
Relevance Example
Relevance Template
CE Calc Template
Deal or No Deal
CE Calc w/ Log Soln
Multiple Deals
Entropy

Extra Readings

Marilyn Drugs
 

Video

Only available if I am unable to be present at lecture.



What do YOU Think?

One percent doctrine

Links

Risk Tolerance Quiz

Strategic Decisions Group

The Decision Analysis Society

INFORMS

Decision Coaching

Foresight Exchange

Jeep Jamboree

 

Back to Previous Page | Go to IE Home